By James M. Dorsey

Sunday’s escalation of hostilities along the Israeli-Lebanese border raises more questions than it provides answers.

Israeli said it launched airstrikes against 40 targets in southern Lebanon to preempt retaliation by Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia, for the July 30 killing in Beirut of the group’s military commander, Fuad Shukr.

Hezbollah confirmed the Israeli assertion, saying it fired some 320 Katyusha rockets and a “large number” of drones at military targets in Israel in an initial response to Mr. Shukr’s killing, raising the spectre of further retaliatory operations.

As straight forward as that may seem, it’s not that simple.

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By James M. Dorsey

is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies as Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, and a forthcoming book with the same title.