By James M. Dorsey
A version of this story first appeared on Channel News Asia.
This weekend’s carefully calibrated Israeli retaliatory strikes at Iranian military targets could lower the risk of an all-out Middle East war, particularly if Iran decides not to respond.
The Iranian military said as much by suggesting in a statement that Iran reserved the right to defend itself but may not respond to the attack if Israel agreed to ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to back the military by declaring the armed forces would decide how the Islamic Republic should respond.
By avoiding escalatory tit-for-tat attacks, Iran would ensure that the international community remains focused on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon at a time when Israel’s support network is fracturing.
With Israeli-Iranian tensions constrained, the fractures in Israel’s US and European diplomatic and military defence shield and the Jewish state’s existing and potential regional partnerships would likely return to the forefront, potentially with a vengeance.
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